Statistical and Data Sciences 390 - Topics in Statistical and Data Sciences: Ecological Forecasting

Topics in statistics and data science. Statistical methods for analyzing data must be chosen appropriately based on the type and structure of the data being analyzed. The particular methods and types of data studied this in this course vary, but topics may include: categorical data analysis, time series analysis, survival analysis, structural equation modeling, survey methodology, Bayesian methods, resampling methods, spatial statistics, missing data methods, advanced linear models, statistical/machine learning, network science, relational databases, web scraping and text mining. This course may be repeated for credit with different topics. Prerequisites: MTH/SDS 290 or MTH/SDS 291 or MTH/SDS 292. : Ecologists are asked to respond to unprecedented environmental challenges. How can they provide the best scientific information about what will happen in the future? The goal of this seminar is to bring together the concepts and tools needed to make ecology a more predictive science. Topics include Bayesian calibration and the complexities of real-world data; uncertainty quantification, partitioning, propagation, and analysis; feedback from models to measurements; state-space models and data fusion; iterative forecasting and the forecast cycle; and decision support. A semester-long project will center on data from the Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute (SCBI) forestry reserve. Prerequisites: SDS 192, SDS 291 and either MTH 112 or MTH 111 and MTH 153. (E)