Natural Science 0259 - Introduction to Bayesian Modeling

We live in a world of randomness-not a world of chaos, but a world in which very few things can be predicted with certainty. We also live in a world of connections where random events in one part of a system propagate into other parts of the system and influence the probability of events there. Bayesian modeling places a rigorous mathematical framework around the world of randomness and connections, a framework that can be shaped by data and used to increase our ability to make predictions and test hypotheses. In this course, we will learn the fundamentals of Bayesian models as well as the underlying concepts of probability and mathematical modeling. Students will apply these modeling principles to ecological, economic, and social systems. The course will culminate with students collecting data and developing and interpreting their own models. Prior experience in probability and statistics is strongly recommended. Keywords:Statistics, Modeling, Ecology, Probability

Students should expect to spend 6-8 hours weekly on work and preparation outside of class time